G.J. Pop. Drop: 12% Slide

PRELIMINARY CENSUS REPORTS SHOWS DECLINE

Grand Junction has taken a significant hit in population since 2000, according to data compiled by the State Data Center Program of the State Library of Iowa. Using data from the 2000 Census conducted by U.S. Census Bureau and preliminary census data from July 1, 2008, the State Library report shows that the population of Grand Junction dropped by 116 residents, from 964 to 848, a 12% decline.

The report indicates that the population downturn was widespread across Greene County, with each community registering percentage declines ranging between -13.6% (Scranton and Churdan) and -9.4% (Paton). Jefferson posted a staggering loss of 482 people, as its population dropped from 4,626 in 2000 to just 4,144 in 2008, a 10.4% decrease.

Rippey declined by 43 residents, from 319 to 276, a 13.5% drop, while Dana was down by 8 residents, from 84 to 76, a 9.5% decline. Estimated populations for the other three towns are Scranton, 522; Churdan, 361; and Paton, 240.

The total population for Greene County in 2008, according to the report, was 9,293 compared with 10,366 in the official 2000 Census. That is a drop of 1,073 people, or a 10.4% decline.

The rural areas of the county did post an increase, however. The combined population of the seven towns decreased by 1,143 (7,280 to 5,867), a 20% drop, but the rural areas grew by 340 (3,086 to 3,426), an 11% increase. This represents a town-to-rural shift from 70/30 in 2008 to 63/37 in 2000.

In the six counties adjacent to Greene, Dallas posted a significant increase while Boone’s was relatively flat. Webster, Calhoun, Carroll and Guthrie counties saw their populations decline. Dallas grew by a staggering 47% from 40,750 in 2000 to 59,930 in 2008. Boone inched up from 26,224 to 26,349, less than 1% growth.

Dallas has been among the fastest-growing counties in the nation the last several years, and Des Moines suburbs Urbandale, Clive and West Des Moines have all extended their boundaries into Dallas County. Yet every town in the county--from big to small--has also show significant growth in the last 10 years. Those closest to the three expanding suburbs saw the biggest increases: Waukee more than doubled in size from 5,126 to 12,367, a 130.6% increase that makes the formerly small Dallas County town a full-fledged Des Moines suburb. In eight years, Waukee has surpassed both Carroll and Perry in size and is closing in on Boone, which saw its population dip from 12,816 to 12,614, a decline of 202 residents (-1.6%). Grimes increased by 64.3% to 8,419 and Granger by 92.7% to 1,054.

In the northern part of the county, Perry grew by nearly 2,000 people (1,934) to 9,569, a 25.3% increase, while Woodward posted an 18.9% increase to 1,202. Bouton, the smallest town in the county, went from 136 to 161, an 18.4% hike. Van Meter and De Soto, two towns in the southern part of the county wedged between the South Raccoon River and the Madison County line, increased by 28.2% and 23.1%, respectively. Van Meter topped the 1,000 mark, increasing from 942 in 2000 to 1,208. De Soto grew from 1,009 to 1,242.

The towns of Dexter, Redfield, Linden and Dawson in western Dallas County also grew. Dexter grew by 193 people to 887, a 27.8% increase; Redfield from 833 to 1,041, a 25% increase; Linden, from 226 to 275, a 21.7% increase; and Dawson from 155 to 163, a 5.2% increase.

In the middle of the county, Dallas Center went from 1,604 to 1.734, an 8.1% increase, and Adel, the county seat, added 993 residents, increasing its population 28.9% to 4,428, which now makes it larger than Jefferson. Minburn grew by 19.9% to 469.

Towns above 1,000 in population seemed to fare the best in the seven-county area, while the smaller communities took the biggest hits. Ogden, Gowrie, Glidden and Coon Rapids saw their populations decline in the 2% to 4% range, while Panora and Stuart in Guthrie County were down just slightly. Panora decreased by 14 people, from 1,175 to 1,161 (-1.2%) and Stuart counts 18 fewer people, moving from 1,721 to 1,703 (-1%).

Surprisingly, two county seat towns were the exception to the 1,000-plus rule. Guthrie Center, the county seat of Guthrie County, posted a 9.1% decline, from 1,668 to 1,517, and Rockwell City, the county seat of Calhoun County, had a population of 2,264 in 2000 but now counts 236 fewer residents, dropping by 10.6% to 1,988.

Overall, Calhoun County had the steepest drop in the area, decreasing by 1,228 residents (11%) to 9,887. Two very small towns in northern Calhoun posted significant decreases, with Jolley dropping by 42.6% (54 down to 31) and Kneirim by 27.1% (70 to 59).

Lohrville, Farnhamville and Somers did not fare much better. Lohrville had a population of 426 in 2000 but that has dropped to 350, a 17.8% decline. Somers went from 165 to 136, a 17.6% shift, and Farnhamville went from 430 to 358, a 16.7% drop. Another town with an under-100 population, Rinard went from 72 to 62, a 13.9% drop.

Calhoun proved to be the inverse of Dallas County, with all the towns posting double-digit percentage decreases, which is especially troubling in the larger towns: Lake City (1,618), -11.4%; Manson (1,657), -12.5%; and Pomeroy (613), -13.7%.

Ralston had the biggest drop in Carroll, Guthrie and Greene Counties, dropping 19.4% (98 to 79). Adair followed at 15%, shrinking from 839 to 713. The largest increase of any town not in the six counties adjacent to Greene with the exclusion of Dallas, was in Berkely, just east of Rippey in Boone County. Berkely, which is a few miles north of the Dallas County border and Perry, increased by three people, from 24 to 27, or 12.5%

Greene County Towns, Population Changes, 2000 to 2008:
Town Pop. '08 +/- change % change
GRAND JUNCTION 848 -116 -12%
Churdan 361 -57 -13.6%
Dana 76 -8 -9.5%
Jefferson 4,144 -482 -10.4%
Paton 240 -25 -9.4%
Rippey 276 -43 -13.5%
Scranton 522 -82 -13.6%

Area Towns with Biggest Population % Increases:
Waukee +130.6% (5,126 to 12,367)
Granger +92.7% (583 to 1,054)
Grimes +64.3% (5,123 to 8,419)
Adel + 28.9% (3,435 to 4,428)
Van Meter +28.2% (942 to 1,208)
Dexter +27.8% (694 to 887)
Perry +25.3% (7,633 to 9,569)
Redfield +25.1% (833 to 1,041)
De Soto +23.1% (1,009 to 1,242)
Linden +21.7% (226 to 275)

Area Towns with Biggest Population % Decreases:
Jolley -42.6% (54 to 31)
Kneirim -27.1% (70 to 59)
Ralston -19.4% (98 to 79)
Lohrville -17.8% (426 to 350)
Somers -16.7% (165 to 136)
Farnhamville -16.7% (430 to 358)
Adair -15% (839 to 713)
Lytton -14.4% (306 to 261)
Scranton -13.6% (604 to 522)
Churdan -13.6% (418 to 361)

EYE ON GJ SAYS: These are pretty significant numbers and they are supported by the changes in school enrollment numbers in the last 10 years, where schools in Dallas County are growing in numbers and adding new infrastructure, and school districts in outlying areas are creating new sharing plans and openly discussing widespread consolidation.

Clearly, Dallas County has been a growth juggernaut. The situation seems to shift the further one moves away from the Des Moines/Ames metro area. Boone County is holding steady, and good-size towns like Fort Dodge in Webster County in Carroll in Carroll County help stabilize those county populations, while Guthrie and Greene counties have seen significant population declines. Yet the situation is much more dire in the areas to the north and northwest of Carroll and Greene, as evidenced by the decline across the board in Calhoun County. The percentage declines are similar across Sac, Ida and Pocahontas counties. In the last several years, the school districts in those three counties have been reconfigured.

Sac County went from four high schools (Sac, WLVA, Odebolt-Arthur, and Schaller-Crestland) to just one (East Sac) as Schaller-Crestland aligned itself this year with Galva-Holstein in Ida County to form Ridge View. The only other existing district in Ida County is Battle Creek-Ida Grove, which is now in a whole-grade and sports sharing arrangement with Odebolt-Arthur which spreads across Sac and Ida counties. The sports teams are now OA-BCIG and high school students from O-A attend BCIG, while O-A maintains an elementary school in Odebolt, where the population dropped 12.8% to 1,004. Arthur’s population decreased from 245 to 209, a 14.7% slide.

In Pocahontas County, the two remaining districts, Pocahontas Area (formerly Pocahontas, Havelock-Plover, and Rolfe districts) and Pomery-Palmer, are in a whole grade sharing arrangement and the sports team compete under one banner, Pocahontas Area/Pomery-Palmer.

Discussions about possible reconfigurations are now underway in Calhoun County, which has three school districts: Manson-Northwest Webster, Rockwell City-Lytton, and Southern Cal (the former Lake and Lohrville school districts). RC-L and SoCal already share sports such as baseball, softball and wrestling. The school boards in each district agreed last month to proceed on complete sports sharing beginning in the 2010-11 school year and to begin whole-grade sharing the following year, 2011-12, but no details have been worked out.

“EYE GUY” MINI-EDITORIAL: It is readily apparent that Grand Junction, Rippey, Junction Township, Washington Township and the greater East Greene Community School District must seriously look at how the communities in Dallas County are advancing, and how those on the opposite side, are not. Despite the efforts of the Jefferson Area Chamber of Commerce; Greene County Economic Development Council; and the Midwest Partnership, an economic group serving Adair, Guthrie and Greene counties; Greene County continues to lose population. This would not be so surprising if eastern Greene County were many, many, many miles from the state’s largest city and state capital and that city’s growing--and affluent--western suburbs and its transcendent small towns-now-becoming- suburbs, and/or very, very far from one of the most robust and vibrant college towns in America and its highly regarded major university. But people, it is not.

All of those attributes are right here, and clearly Dallas County figured out quite early how to capitalize on them. Firstly, and most importantly, they did not wall themselves off into some cocoon-esque “west central Iowa.” I say, let Jefferson, Guthrie Center, Glidden and Coon Rapids--and all the other towns points west--wrap themselves around this fading “west central Iowa” flag, but if Grand Junction and East Greene want to guarantee some sort of a viable future, the community needs to recognize the advantages it has in being within realistic proximity to Ames, Des Moines and, most importantly, Dallas County. Essentially, the bandwagon has come and although it has not yet gone (I can still the tail-lights in the distance), there is no time to waste. Plans need to be made to guarantee a future. And if the future entails continuing to regard Grand Junction as some bucolic little farm town--BECAUSE THAT’S THE WAY IT’S ALWAYS BEEN--well, just lock up the city hall and tear down the school building, because there won’t be a future. Personally, I don’t think the people of Grand Junction, Rippey, Dana, Wash Township or “Junction” as in the overall, over-sized township, are hard-wired to become the East Jefferson Annex.

I propose a multi-point plan that looks at ALL of Grand Junction’s advantages and then looks seriously at its limitations, and builds toward a future, rather than the typical dig the moat deeper/pull up the drawbridge approach, or the typical “blame they neighbor” reality that has existed in Grand Junction for far, far too long. Let’s face it: Grand Junction negativity is systemic and rampant. Yes, the patient is sick but we KNOW the symptoms. They, and it, can be treated.

The proposal is simple in outline, but incredibly challenging in actual implementation, if not completely impossible (as I said, Grand Junction Negativity--GJN--is rampant and systemic....I was raised on it and we have perfected it over several generations). The broad terms of what I wanted to call, “Can This Town Be Saved?,” (but that sounds too very much GJN-oriented) are actually grouped together under “Grand Junction 2020: Blueprint for the 21st Century” with first step to be Project One Grand, an effort to get Grand Junction moving forward that so that in the near future the town will once again have reached the pivotal 1,000 mark in population. We were there once in our history, there is no reason we cannot be so again.

Yes, for those businessmen and businesswomen out there, yes, this--a population of 1,000-- is clearly a benchmark.

The ultimate goal is to actually grow Grand Junction to 2020--a sustaining population with equal number of births and new arrivals matched against deaths and depatures in the range of 2,000-plus, or, in simpler terms, 2020--two thousand and twenty (2,020). This would help guarantee that Grand Junction has enough citizens to support a viable business community offering critical goods and services, and enough students to keep the school doors open and restore to the community’s educational system to its earlier pre-eminence.

We have several key advantages to our future: Polk/Dallas/Story outgrowth; a vibrant rail and highway transportation heritage; a school district that serves as a cohesive glue to the entire eastern one-third of Greene County; a main street with enormous potential; and a very significant industrial development boost from the Grand Junction LDC biofuels plant which can serve as the anchor to what could be a vibrant industrial corridor stretching from the existing UP north-south/east-west railroad and the 144/30 highway intersections all the way up to the Grand Junction LDC plant.

Subsets of this program are the Double-R Initiative and DANA100. The RRI looks to grow Rippey/Wash Twshp so that it will double its current population so that it will become a community of over 500 citizens and DANA 100 looks to begin to rebuild Dana and bring the population up to 100.

Look to this space in the near future for more details of Grand Junction 2020.

--Alan Robinson, January 21, 2010